Preview Ampol State Origin

 

Ampol State Origin Summary

                               Origins of the Rivalry

Established in 1980, the State of Origin concept revolutionized interstate rugby league by selecting players based on their state of origin rather than their current club location. This shift leveled the playing field, allowing Queensland to compete more effectively against the traditionally dominant New South Wales. Since then, the series has become a battleground for state pride, producing countless memorable moments and legendary players.

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 Iconic Moments and Players

The rivalry has been defined by its fierce competitiveness and the emergence of rugby league legends. Queensland's Wally Lewis, known as "The King," set the standard in the 1980s and early '90s, while New South Wales' Brad Fittler left an indelible mark as both player and coach. The 2000s saw Queensland's dominance with players like Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston, and Billy Slater leading the Maroons to an unprecedented eight consecutive series wins from 2006 to 2013. 

🟥 Why Queensland Will Win 

Queensland has the edge thanks to stable combinations, game-breaking talent (Walsh, Munster, DCE), and a bench that finishes strong. Their game plan is polished, and they thrive in pressure situations. Defensively, they scramble better and adjust mid-game without falling apart.

 Why Billy Slater Leads QLD to Victory

 1. He Knows Origin Better Than Anyone

• A legendary fullback who played 31 Origin games, Slater understands the battlefield.

• He’s built a culture of precision, pride, and performance—the same values that made him a superstar now drive his team.

“When Billy speaks, the players listen. And then they deliver.”

 2. Clarity + Consistency in Selection

• Unlike NSW’s revolving door, Billy keeps things stable.

• He backs players like Reece Walsh, DCE, and Munster—same spine, every game.

• His loyalty breeds confidence. Players perform because they feel trusted.

3. Attacking Smarts, Defensive Steel

• Billy has brought structure to QLD’s chaos—something past coaches lacked.

• Under him, the Maroons strike with purpose (fast left edge, Walsh sweeping) and scramble with intent (Cotter, Carrigan clean up everything).

4. Big-Game Mentality

• Since taking over, QLD has won the tight games, often late.

• Why? Because Billy drills resilience. He turns rookies into weapons—just look at Tabuai-Fidow, Cobbo, Nanai.

 5. Origin Identity is Back

Billy has restored the classic QLD blueprint:

• Us vs Them mentality

• No excuses

• Every tackle personal

Slater doesn’t just coach a team—he embodies the Maroon spirit.The Result?

Game 1:
Slater orchestrates a grind-and-strike strategy:

• Carrigan + Tino wear NSW down

• Hunt kicks QLD into field position

• Munster breaks it open

• Walsh finishes it off

Final Score:
QLD 20 def NSW 16
– Slater fist pumps. Another one.

🔵 Why the Blues Might Lose

NSW struggles with inconsistent combinations, especially in the spine (due to injuries and chopping/changing). Their forwards tire late, and when under scoreboard pressure, they often lose structure and rely on individual brilliance. If they don’t score early or control territory, they fade in the final 20 minutes—exactly where Queensland surges.

 Why NSW Can Win: The Real Story

Laurie Daley’s Calm Leadership

Let’s be honest—Daley isn’t just a coach; he’s a calm general in the chaos of Origin. He’s been there, done it, captained it, coached it. His return brings:

• Stability after years of turmoil under Fittler

• Clearer structure in selections and tactics

• Real trust from the playing group who grew up watching him lead

Daley won Origin as a player and coach. He knows what it takes to out-think QLD.

Why NSW Will Fire in Game 3

Key Element	NSW Advantage
Latrell's X-Factor	Back in form, ready to explode in the centres
Forward Pack Muscle	Haas, Yeo, Crichton, Barnett—relentless meters
Halves Control	Cleary + Moses combo gives kicking + vision
Edge Playmakers	Crichton and To'o are lethal if given early ball
Bench Punch	Leniu + Young = instant impact

 Real Talk: How NSW Will Do It

• First 20 Minutes: Blues need to weather the storm. QLD always starts hot at Suncorp.

• Halftime Target: If scores are level or Blues are ahead, Daley can dictate tempo.

• Second Half Strike: Quick plays from Robson and energy off the bench (Watson/Leniu) will break QLD’s line fatigue.

 The Winning Narrative

“The critics said NSW couldn't. The scoreboard said they did.”

• Latrell steamrolls Toia

• Cleary 40/20 in the 63rd

• Final Try: Dylan Edwards under the posts from a Yeo short ball

Full-time: NSW 26 def QLD 20
Laurie Daley: arms crossed. Nods. Legacy intact. No fuss.

 Why It’s Their Time

The Blues aren’t just desperate—they’re disciplined, dangerous, and done with losing. Laurie Daley brings Origin DNA. If belief matches execution, NSW will take Game 3 by the throat—and the shield too.

Queensland wins because they're cohesive, composed, and clinical.
NSW could’ve won—but poor combinations, late-game fatigue, and rushed decisions cost them.

🟥 Queensland Maroons Lineup (Coach: Billy Slater)

Backs:

• 1. Kalyn Ponga

• 2. Xavier Coates

• 3. Robert Toia

• 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

• 5. Valentine Holmes

Halves:

• 6. Cameron Munster

• 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c)

Forwards:

• 8. Moeaki Fotuaika

• 9. Harry Grant

• 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui

• 11. Reuben Cotter

• 12. Jeremiah Nanai

• 13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange:

• 14. Tom Dearden

• 15. Lindsay Collins

• 16. Beau Fermor

• 17. Trent Loiero

Reserves:

• 18. Kurt Mann

• 19. Jesse Arthars

• 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

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🔵 New South Wales Blues Lineup (Coach: Laurie Daley)

Backs:

• 1. Dylan Edwards

• 2. Brian To'o

• 3. Stephen Crichton

• 4. Latrell Mitchell

• 5. Zac Lomax

Halves:

• 6. Mitchell Moses

• 7. Nathan Cleary

Forwards:

• 8. Mitchell Barnett

• 9. Reece Robson

• 10. Payne Haas

• 11. Liam Martin

• 12. Angus Crichton

• 13. Isaah Yeo (c)

Interchange:

• 14. Connor Watson

• 15. Spencer Leniu

• 16. Hudson Young

• 17. Max King

Reserves:

• 18. Campbell Graham

• 19. Stefano Utoikamanu

• 20. Haumole Olakau'atu

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🔍 Notable Selections & Talking Points

• Robert Toia's Debut: Queensland's Robert Toia is set to make his State of Origin debut at centre, facing off against Latrell Mitchell in a highly anticipated matchup. 

• Latrell Mitchell's Return: Latrell Mitchell returns to the Blues' lineup at centre, bringing his big-game experience and dynamic playmaking abilities. 

• Halves Combination: The Blues field a strong halves pairing with Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses, aiming to control the game's tempo and provide strategic kicking options.

• Forward Battle: Both teams boast formidable forward packs, with key players like Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan expected to play pivotal roles in gaining the upper hand in the middle of the field.

Game 2 Changers – What Shifted the Series?

🔵 NSW Changes (Coach: Laurie Daley)

Daley made significant tweaks for Game 2, laying the groundwork for their resurgence:

Area	Change	Impact
Fullback	James Tedesco ❌ → Dylan Edwards ✅	Edwards brought calm and reliability under high balls, plus excellent kick returns.
Halves	Luai ❌ → Moses ✅	Moses offered direction and long kicking to complement Cleary’s short game.
Bench Rotation	Turbo-style gambles ❌ → Impact players ✅	Leniu and Watson injected energy, unlike the ineffective utility experiments in Game 1.
Edge Defence	Lacked connection ❌ → Crichton + Martin ✅	Both defended strongly and offered threat on the edges.
Centres	Graham out ❌ → Latrell in ✅	Latrell provided intimidation and spark—his presence lifted the whole backline.

Queensland Adjustments (Coach: Billy Slater)

Slater stayed loyal—but it backfired in Game 2:

Area	Decision	Result
Persisted with Ponga at fullback	✅	Still dangerous but limited space meant less involvement.
Bench Choices	Similar to Game 1	Lack of variety left QLD flat late in the match.
Middle Rotation	Tino, Fotuaika, Cotter overworked	NSW bench overran them in the final 20.

 SeriHere are the confirmed State of Origin Game 2 lineups for both teams at Optus Stadium, Perth – Wednesday, 18 June 2025:

🔵 New South Wales Blues – Game 2 (Optus Stadium)

Starting 13:

1. Dylan Edwards (FB)

2. Brian To’o (WG)

3. Stephen Crichton (CE)

4. Latrell Mitchell (CE)

5. Zac Lomax (WG)

6. Jarome Luai (FE) – in for injured Mitchell Moses 

7. Nathan Cleary (HB)

8. Max King (PR) – replaces Mitchell Barnett 

9. Reece Robson (HK)

10. Payne Haas (PR)

11. Liam Martin (SR)

12. Angus Crichton (SR)

13. Isaah Yeo (c) (LK)

Interchange (14–17):
14. Connor Watson
15. Spencer Leniu
16. Hudson Young
17. Stefano Utoikamanu 

Reserves:

• 18. Matt Burton

• 20. Lindsay Smith

🟥 Queensland Maroons – Game 2 (Optus Stadium)

Starting 13:

1. Kalyn Ponga (FB)

2. Xavier Coates (WG)

3. Robert Toia (CE)

4. Valentine Holmes (CE)

5. Hamiso Tabuai‑Fidow (WG)

6. Cameron Munster (c) (FE)

7. Tom Dearden (HB) – replacing Daly Cherry‑Evans 

8. Moeaki Fotuaika (PR)

9. Harry Grant (HK)

10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (PR)

11. Reuben Cotter (SR)

12. Kurt Capewell (SR)

13. Trent Loiero (LK)

Interchange (14–17):
14. Kurt Mann (debut cap‑no 235) 
15. Lindsay Collins
16. Jeremiah Nanai
17. Patrick Carrigan

Reserves:

• 18. Ezra Mam

• 20. Corey Horsburgh

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Thought on Game 1 – The Moment That Set the Tone

Game 1 wasn’t just a loss for New South Wales—it was a wake-up call.

Queensland didn’t win by luck. They won by structure, synergy, and pure Origin intensity. From the opening whistle, they played like a team that had already written the ending—they just needed the Blues to read along.

NSW came in with talent, but Queensland came in with trust. Daly Cherry-Evans controlled the rhythm like a conductor, and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow lit the edges on fire. Every Maroon movement had purpose; every tackle came with venom.

The Blues had flashes—To’o's carries, Haas’ power, and a Mitchell moment or two—but their combinations felt stitched together. Cleary lacked rhythm with Moses, and Latrell was asked to spark a game that had already slipped away.

The real killer? Ruck speed. Queensland dominated it, and once Grant and Munster started probing around the edges, the fatigue set in.

 Thought on Game 2 – A Heartbreaker in Perth

Game 2 was a tale of two halves—and two inches.

New South Wales looked primed to clinch the series on foreign soil. They came out firing, built pressure, and played with clarity. Cleary controlled the game, Latrell looked hungry, and their pack matched Queensland’s muscle stride for stride. At 18-12 midway through the second half, it felt like the Blues were going to crush the hoodoo.

But then, Origin happened.

Patrick Carrigan turned the momentum with a brutal defensive set, Munster brought the chaos, and Harry Grant found the angles. The Maroons surged back with raw emotion, putting up 14 points in the blink of an eye.

The Blues responded—they always do now under Daley. A late try from Zac Lomax almost stole it, and a sideline conversion from Cleary just faded wide.

Final Score: QLD 26 def NSW 24.
It wasn’t just a loss. It was a gut-punch.

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🎯 Key Turning Points in Game 2

Minute	Moment	Impact
18’	Latrell intercepts and scores	Set the tone—Blues got belief.
44’	Cleary forces back-to-back dropouts	Momentum wrestled away from QLD.
68’	Leniu charges through 3 defenders	Changed the pace and put Blues in front.
75’	To’o dive into the corner	Sealed the game. Proved early-ball plan worked.

🧠 Tactical Masterstroke: Daley’s Game 2 Blueprint

• Slowed QLD ruck speed: Yeo and Haas neutralised Grant’s speed.

• Spread early to Latrell and To’o: Used width to open QLD’s compressed defence.

• Mid-half kicks: Moses forced Coates and Ponga to constantly turn around—drained QLD’s energy.

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💬 Player Quotes Post-Game 2

🗣️ “We knew we had to play smart and hard. Laurie told us to be clinical, and we stuck to the script.” – Isaah Yeo

🗣️ “This group wanted it. That second half was Origin footy, no mistakes, all grit.” – Nathan Cleary

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🔵 NSW Blues – Changes for Game 3

• Mitchell Moses (five‑eighth) is out with a calf injury sustained in training and will miss up to six weeks, ruling him out of Game 3 

• Jarome Luai returns to the starting halves, partnering Nathan Cleary for the decider 

• The rest of Daley’s 17 remain unchanged; no further positional changes reported.

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🟥 Queensland Maroons – Game 3

Queensland have named an unchanged lineup following their dramatic win in Game 2. All 17 players have retained their positions for the decider 

✅ Summary – Key Game 3 Change

• NSW: Mitchell Moses ➝ Jarome Luai at five‑eighth.

This is the only official change for Game 3 heading into Accor Stadium.

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Would you like more context on how Luai vs Moses affects NSW’s game plan, or a matchup breakdown of key positions for the decider?

Here’s the confirmed Game 3 line‑up for Wednesday, July 9 at Accor Stadium – the decisive Origin decider:

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🔵

New South Wales Blues – Game 3 (Accor Stadium)

Unchanged from Game 2 

Starting 13

1. Dylan Edwards (FB)

2. Brian To’o (WG)

3. Stephen Crichton (CE)

4. Latrell Mitchell (CE)

5. Zac Lomax (WG)

6. Jarome Luai (5/8)

7. Nathan Cleary (HB)

8. Max King (PR)

9. Reece Robson (HK)

10. Payne Haas (PR)

11. Liam Martin (SR)

12. Angus Crichton (SR)

13. Isaah Yeo (c) (LK)

Interchange (14–17)
14. Connor Watson
15. Spencer Leniu
16. Hudson Young
17. Stefano Utoikamanu

Reserves
18. Matt Burton
20. Lindsay Smith

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🟥 Queensland Maroons – Game 3 (Accor Stadium)

Unchanged from Game 2 

Starting 13

1. Kalyn Ponga (FB)

2. Xavier Coates (WG)

3. Robert Toia (CE)

4. Valentine Holmes (CE)

5. Hamiso Tabuai‑Fidow (WG)

6. Cameron Munster (c) (5/8)

7. Tom Dearden (HB)

8. Moeaki Fotuaika (PR)

9. Harry Grant (HK)

10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (PR)

11. Reuben Cotter (SR)

12. Kurt Capewell (SR)

13. Patrick Carrigan (LK)

Interchange (14–17)
14. Kurt Mann
15. Lindsay Collins
16. Jeremiah Nanai
17. Trent Loiero

Reserves
18. Ezra Mam
20. Corey Horsburgh

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🧭 In Summary

• Both sides field the exact same 17 players who competed in Game 2—no late-in-game swaps or injuries reported.

• NSW revert to Luai at five-eighth, replacing the injured Moses, while QLD roll with the same squad that edged Game 2.

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Would you like a key matchup analysis or take a look at where these unchanged pairings might determine the outcome in the decider?

Absolutely — here’s a full reflective take on the 2025 State of Origin decider (Game 3) ahead of Wednesday night:

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🧠 Thoughts on the Decider – The Stage, the Stakes, the Story

There’s no greater theatre in Australian sport than a State of Origin Game 3 decider in Sydney.

The series is locked 1–1. The home side has the edge. The ghosts of past glory—and heartbreak—hover over Accor Stadium. And this time, it’s about more than the shield. It’s about identity.

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🔵 For NSW: The Pressure of Promise

Laurie Daley has brought structure, selection sanity, and belief back to New South Wales. His side is tougher, smarter, and more cohesive than anything seen in the late Fittler years.

But with that comes expectation.

• Latrell Mitchell has been their emotional leader—explosive in Game 1, determined in Game 2. This is his chance to write his Origin legacy in full.

• Nathan Cleary knows this is his moment. For years, critics said he couldn’t win without Penrith's system. But this is his team now.

• Jarome Luai, returning for the injured Moses, must balance instinct and discipline. One flick too many could unravel it.

They have the cattle. They have the coach. Now they need composure.

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🟥 For Queensland: The Weight of Defiance

Billy Slater's Maroons are built in the image of their coach—precise, patient, and proud.

They stole Game 2 in Perth. Not with dominance, but with grit. They don't panic. They don't fade. They just believe.

• Tom Dearden has stepped into DCE’s boots and filled them with quiet authority.

• Cameron Munster—the chaos merchant—has yet to unleash a signature performance. That should scare Blues fans.

• Kalyn Ponga, back from injury, brings unpredictability and polish.

Queensland aren't the better team on paper. But in deciders, history shows that hardly matters.

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🔥 The Decider Will Be Won In…

• Minutes 55–70: This is where Origin games tilt.

  • NSW's bench (Leniu, Watson) brings speed and line-breaking potential.

  • QLD’s middle (Carrigan, Tino, Cotter) will try to choke time and space.

  • One error, one missed tackle, one spark — and the shield changes hands.

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🏁 Final Word: Legacy Awaits

For New South Wales, this is a crossroads. Win, and a new dynasty could begin under Daley. Lose, and the weight of “what if” returns.

For Queensland, it’s familiar ground. An away decider. A loyal 17. A deep belief that the scoreboard will tell their story again.

This isn’t just another Game 3.

This is Origin — and everything is on the line.

🧾 2025 Origin Series So Far

Game	Winner	Score	Venue
Game 1	NSW	18 – 6	Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Game 2	QLD	26 – 24	Optus Stadium, Perth
Game 3	❓	❓	Accor Stadium, Sydney