AFL Quarter Finals

AFL SportsMind – Round 24, Wildcard Finals & QF

Round 24 final results · Wildcard Finals · Current QF round · 20 August–5 September 2026

Strongest Pick

Highest Win %

Most Fragile

Very Stable Picks

SportsMind Round 24 Win Probability

Round 24 Matchups

Confidence Ratings

Match	Pick	Win %	90% CI	95% CI	99% CI	Rating	Stability	Projected Margin	Projected Score

Method: H2H prices are de-vigged to fair market probabilities. Round 23 margin form is applied as a controlled 15% log-odds recency adjustment, with projected margin moved 10% toward the Round 23 relative margin signal. Confidence intervals use Wilson score intervals with effective n=22. Stability: 99% lower bound above 50% = Very Stable; 95% = Stable; 90% = Moderately Stable; otherwise Fragile.

Round 24 Result Analysis — Final

Completed Games0 / 9

Correct Picks0

Pick Accuracy—

Mean Margin Error—

Match	SportsMind Pick	Forecast %	Forecast Margin	Home Score	Away Score	Actual Winner	Actual Margin	Correct?	Margin Error

Round 24 final scores are preloaded. Result Analysis calculates the actual winner, actual margin, whether the SportsMind pick was correct, absolute forecast-margin error, round accuracy, and mean margin error. Scores remain editable and are saved in this browser.

Wildcard Finals — Final Results

Completed Games2 / 2

Western Bulldogs96–93

Carlton74–55

Average Margin11.0 pts

Date	Match	Score	Winner	Margin	Venue	Status
Fri 28 Aug	Western Bulldogs v Collingwood	96–93	Western Bulldogs	3	MCG, Melbourne	FINAL
Sat 29 Aug	Melbourne v Carlton	55–74	Carlton	19	MCG, Melbourne	FINAL

Wildcard Finals are shown as actual results only because no pre-match SportsMind probabilities were supplied for these two games.

QF Round — Current

Completed Games1 / 4

Completed ResultHawthorn +32

Strongest Market Pick—

Highest Fair %—

Date	Match	Status	Odds	Fair %	Market Pick	Result	Venue

QF fair percentages remove the bookmaker margin from the supplied head-to-head prices. Fremantle v Hawthorn is already final; no pre-match odds were supplied for that completed game, so no retrospective percentage has been invented.