Week 7-11 Wrap Up

🏈 NFL 2025 – Weeks 7–10 Wrap-Up

Forecast vs actual results, tipping accuracy, and storylines across four key mid-season weeks.

Updated mid-season · Weeks 7–10

📊 Tipping Accuracy Snapshot

Your hit-rate week by week as the model evolves and you lean into “feel” picks.

Week 7: 11 / 15 · 73.3%

Week 8: 10 / 14 · 71.4%

Week 9: 11 / 14 · 78.6%

Week 10: 9 / 13 · 69.2% (+1 pending)

Across Weeks 7–10 you went 41 / 56, a hit rate of roughly 73.2% on decided games — with several big calls coming from your “against the forecast” tweaks.

Week 7 – Results & Accuracy

Big wins for the Rams, Chiefs, and Browns, while the Bengals stunned Pittsburgh in a divisional thriller.

Matchup	Pick	Forecast	Final Score	Winner	Result
PIT @ CIN	Pittsburgh	PIT by 3	Bengals 33–31	Bengals	❌
LAR @ JAX	Rams	LAR by 2	Rams 35–7	Rams	✅
NO @ CHI	Chicago	CHI by 8	Bears 26–14	Bears	✅
MIA @ CLE	Cleveland	CLE by 1	Browns 31–6	Browns	✅
LV @ KC	Chiefs	KC by 16	Chiefs 31–0	Chiefs	✅
PHI @ MIN	Vikings	MIN by 3	Eagles 28–22	Eagles	❌
CAR @ NYJ	Jets	NYJ by 2	Panthers 13–6	Panthers	❌
NE @ TEN	Patriots	NE by 8	Patriots 31–13	Patriots	✅
NYG @ DEN	Broncos	DEN by 11	Broncos 33–32	Broncos	✅
IND @ LAC	Colts	IND by 2	Colts 38–24	Colts	✅
GB @ ARI	Packers	GB by 1	Packers 27–23	Packers	✅
WAS @ DAL	Commanders	WAS by 2	Cowboys 44–22	Cowboys	❌
ATL @ SF	49ers	SF by 2	49ers 20–10	49ers	✅
TB @ DET	Lions	DET by 7	Lions 24–9	Lions	✅
HOU @ SEA	Seahawks	SEA by 1	Seahawks 27–19	Seahawks	✅

Tipping Accuracy: 11 / 15 → 73.3%
✅ Correct: Rams, Bears, Browns, Chiefs, Patriots, Broncos, Colts, Packers, 49ers, Lions, Seahawks
❌ Missed: Bengals, Eagles, Panthers, Cowboys

🏆 Week 7 Highlights

• Bengals 33 def. Steelers 31 – Last-minute FG in a heated AFC North clash.
• Chiefs 31 def. Raiders 0 – First shutout of the year in a flawless KC performance.
• Browns 31 def. Dolphins 6 – Cleveland’s D smothered Miami; Watson in rhythm.
• Rams 35 def. Jaguars 7 – Stafford dissected Jacksonville in a statement road win.
• Broncos 33 def. Giants 32 – Denver survived a wild finish to move to 5–2.

📈 Final Word (Week 7)

• Cincinnati delivered the upset of the week.
• Kansas City and Detroit look like early pace-setters.
• Cleveland quietly climbs with an elite home defense.
• Philadelphia bounced back with a crisp offensive display.
• Seattle & San Francisco stayed steady in the NFC West race.

Week 8 – Results & Accuracy

Big offensive performances from Buffalo and Denver, Texans stun the 49ers, and the Chiefs keep rolling.

Matchup	Pick	Forecast	Final Score	Winner	Result
BUF @ CAR	Bills	BUF by 6	Bills 40–9	Bills	✅
NE @ CLE	Patriots	NE by 3	Patriots 32–13	Patriots	✅
BAL @ CHI	Bears	CHI by 2	Ravens 30–16	Ravens	❌
ATL @ MIA	Falcons	ATL by 1	Dolphins 34–10	Dolphins	❌
HOU @ SF	Texans	HOU by 1	Texans 26–15	Texans	✅
CIN @ NYJ	Bengals	CIN by 3	Jets 39–38	Jets	❌
CLE @ NE	Browns	CLE by 4	Patriots 32–13	Patriots	❌
PHI @ NYG	Eagles	PHI by 4	Eagles 38–20	Eagles	✅
NO @ TB	Buccaneers	TB by 7	Buccaneers 23–3	Buccaneers	✅
DAL @ DEN	Broncos	DEN by 4	Broncos 44–24	Broncos	✅
TEN @ IND	Colts	IND by 3	Colts 38–14	Colts	✅
MIN @ LAC	Chargers	LAC by 2	Chargers 37–10	Chargers	✅
PIT @ GB	Packers	GB by 9	Packers 35–25	Packers	✅
WAS @ KC	Chiefs	KC by 5	Chiefs 28–7	Chiefs	✅

Tipping Accuracy: 10 / 14 → 71.4%
✅ Correct: Bills, Patriots, Texans, Eagles, Buccaneers, Broncos, Colts, Chargers, Packers, Chiefs
❌ Missed: Ravens, Dolphins, Jets, Browns

🏆 Week 8 Highlights

• Buffalo 40 def. Carolina 9 – Allen led an offensive explosion.
• Houston 26 def. San Francisco 15 – One of the season’s biggest road upsets.
• Denver 44 def. Dallas 24 – Broncos rolled to 6–2.
• New England 32 def. Cleveland 13 – Pats offense in rhythm, defense frustrated the Browns.
• Kansas City 28 def. Washington 7 – Another dominant home performance.

📈 Final Word (Week 8)

• Buffalo & Denver were the week’s big winners, both over 40 points.
• Houston’s upset in San Francisco stood out as a major shock.
• New England picked up momentum with consecutive strong performances.
• Kansas City & Green Bay looked firmly playoff-ready.
• Philadelphia continued its climb with another confident divisional win.

Week 9 – Results & Accuracy

Your “against-the-forecast” tweaks really landed this week.

Your Picks: Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Carolina, Denver, New England, NY Giants, Indianapolis, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Seattle, Dallas

You specifically backed a few key spots: Baltimore, Carolina, San Francisco and Buffalo — turning prior forecast leans into profitable hits.

Matchup	Pick	Final Score	Winner	Result
BAL @ MIA	Baltimore	Baltimore 28–6	Baltimore	✅
CHI @ CIN	Chicago	Chicago 47–42	Chicago	✅
MIN @ DET	Detroit	Minnesota 27–24	Minnesota	❌
CAR @ GB	Carolina	Carolina 16–13	Carolina	✅
DEN @ HOU	Denver	Denver 18–15	Denver	✅
ATL @ NE	New England	New England 24–23	New England	✅
SF @ NYG	San Francisco	San Francisco 34–24	San Francisco	✅
IND @ PIT	Indianapolis	Pittsburgh 27–20	Pittsburgh	❌
LAC @ TEN	LA Chargers	LA Chargers 27–20	LA Chargers	✅
NO @ LAR	LA Rams	LA Rams 34–10	LA Rams	✅
JAX @ LV	Jacksonville	Jacksonville 30–29	Jacksonville	✅
KC @ BUF	Buffalo	Buffalo 28–21	Buffalo	✅
SEA @ WAS	Seattle	Seattle 38–14	Seattle	✅
ARI @ DAL	Dallas	Arizona 27–17	Arizona	❌

Weekly Accuracy: 11 / 14 → 78.6%
Progressive Score: 91 / 136 (~66.9%) at that point in the season.

🏆 Week 9 Highlights

• Baltimore 28 def. Miami 6 – Ravens dominated on both sides of the ball.
• Chicago 47 def. Cincinnati 42 – Wild high-scoring shootout, Bears outlasted the Bengals.
• Minnesota 27 def. Detroit 24 – Tight divisional game that clipped a Detroit pick.
• Carolina 16 def. Green Bay 13 – Panthers landed a surprise road win as a dog.
• Jacksonville 30 def. Las Vegas 29 – Jags edged a nail-biter.
• Buffalo 28 def. Kansas City 21 – Bills handed the Chiefs a rare road loss.
• Arizona 27 def. Dallas 17 – Cardinals capped the week with a solid divisional victory.

📈 Final Word (Week 9)

• Your “against-the-model” choices (BAL, CAR, SF, BUF) were the difference this week.
• Buffalo and Denver again stood out with strong all-round performances.
• New England kept its momentum going in another tight finish.
• San Francisco showed resilience with a bounce-back win.
• Seattle & Kansas City still tracked like postseason threats despite the ups and downs.

Week 10 – Forecast vs Actual

Defensive grinders, overseas drama in Berlin, and a couple of sharp upsets against the model.

Matchup	Forecast	Actual Score	Result	Notes
Las Vegas @ Denver	Denver by 18	DEN 10–7	✅ Correct	Defensive grind
Atlanta @ Indianapolis	Indy by 15	IND 31–25 (OT)	✅ Correct	OT thriller in Berlin
New Orleans @ Carolina	Carolina by 5	NO 17–7	❌ Upset	Saints defense dominated
NY Giants @ Chicago	Chicago by 4	CHI 24–20	✅ Correct	Close; margin matched forecast
Jacksonville @ Houston	Houston by 13	HOU 36–29	✅ Correct	Texans’ late surge
Buffalo @ Miami	Buffalo by 6	MIA 30–13	❌ Upset	Dolphins statement win
Baltimore @ Minnesota	Minnesota by 2	BAL 27–19	❌ Upset	Ravens controlled throughout
Cleveland @ NY Jets	Jets by 2	NYJ 27–20	✅ Correct	Comfortably inside forecast range
New England @ Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay by 3	NE 28–23	❌ Upset	Pats offense clicked
Arizona @ Seattle	Seattle by 10	SEA 44–22	✅ Correct	Early rout; never in doubt
LA Rams @ San Francisco	Rams by 5	LAR 42–26	✅ Correct	High-scoring road win
Detroit @ Washington	Detroit by 7	DET 44–22	✅ Correct	Dominant Lions performance
Pittsburgh @ LA Chargers	Chargers by 6	LAC 25–10	✅ Correct	Defense stepped up
Philadelphia @ Green Bay	Green Bay by 3	Pending	—	Monday night game – add when final

Weekly Accuracy (decided games): 9 / 13 → 69.2%
✅ Hits: LV@DEN, ATL@IND, NYG@CHI, JAX@HOU, CLE@NYJ, ARI@SEA, LAR@SF, DET@WAS, PIT@LAC
❌ Misses: NO@CAR, BUF@MIA, BAL@MIN, NE@TB · PHI@GB still pending

🏆 Week 10 Headlines

• Miami 30 def. Buffalo 13 – Huge response win for the Dolphins against expectations.
• Baltimore 27 def. Minnesota 19 – Ravens took control on the road.
• Denver 10 def. Las Vegas 7 – Low-scoring grind that still matched the side.
• Indianapolis 31 def. Atlanta 25 (OT) – Berlin OT classic, forecast side still lands.
• LA Rams 42 def. San Francisco 26 – Stafford and Kupp drove a high-octane road win.
• Detroit 44 def. Washington 22 – Lions maintained their status as a top-tier rating side.

📈 Final Word (Week 10)

• Your model held up well in a volatility-heavy slate, still hitting close to 70% on decided games despite several sharp upsets.
• Miami, Baltimore, and New England punished the raw numbers, a reminder that matchup dynamics and situational factors can overturn even strong rating edges.
• Detroit and the LA Rams reinforced their status as genuine top-tier sides, both winning big in spots where the model already liked them.
• Denver and Seattle continued to profile as “trust” teams, regularly converting forecasts into results.
• With one result still pending, Week 10 feels like an inflection point: the core model is clearly working, but layering in form, injuries, and schedule/travel spots should help defuse a few more of those upset landmines going forward.